Meteorologists Say 2024 Will “Amplify Hurricane Activity”—Here’s Where
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So far in 2024, winter weather has already proven to be quite a handful by bringing widespread freezing temperatures , plenty of snowfall, and flooding rains . But once the weather begins to warm up, many will start anxiously anticipating what surprises this year’s hurricane season could bring. Experts often try to monitor conditions to determine roughly how many severe storms we can expect. And so far, meteorologists say there’s evidence that 2024 will “amplify hurricane activity” when the season kicks off. Read on to see how this season will be different and how it could affect you.
RELATED: “Arctic Blast” and Widespread Snow Predicted for Next Month—Here’s Where .
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Months after it ended, the 2023 hurricane season remains notable for several reasons—and could also provide some insight into how this year’s could play out. Record-high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic brought about a particularly active season , with 20 named storms forming over the six-month period, pushing it above the running average of 14, the Miami Herald reported.
The intensity of the storms was also notably high: Seven systems developed into hurricanes, including three that reached Category 3 or higher. But despite the high potential for catastrophe, Hurricane Idalia and a pair of tropical storms were the only storms that ever made landfall in the U.S., per the Miami Herald .
“It was one for the books,” Phillip Klotzbach , a meteorologist and researcher at Colorado State University, told the newspaper. “But overall, a benign season.”
Other experts pointed out that while the El Niño conditions seen last year typically reduce the number of storms, extreme conditions appear to have steamrolled the normal effect it has. “Without that temperature contrast, if the Atlantic is very, very warm and the Pacific is warm, it just doesn’t drive those unfavorable winds in the same way,” Ryan Truchelut , chief meteorologist of private weather service Weather Tiger, told the Herald .
RELATED: A “Polar Vortex” Is Expected to Hit the U.S. Soon—Here’s What to Know .
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Now, some experts are warning that we should expect a similarly active season this year. Some point to the lingering high temperatures in the Atlantic that might help fuel more storms .
“The Atlantic Ocean last year had some very warm sea surface temperatures—in fact, record warm in places,” Adam Lea , PhD, a climate physicist at TropicalStormRisk.com, said during an interview with Fox Weather on Jan. 29. “With all that heat that’s accumulated in the oceans, it’s going to take a long time for all that to dissipate.”
While conditions could change, Lea says that the current winter readings show the ocean will likely not have enough time to release heat before warmer weather arrives leading into the start of hurricane season in June.
“It’s not just the tropical Atlantic at the moment,” he told Fox Weather. “It’s all the subtropical Atlantic as well. Off the coast of Spain, in a kind of swath all the way down the Canary Islands, into the subtropics and across the Atlantic, that’s very warm at the moment.”
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But while some of last year’s lingering conditions could contribute to another busy season, one other element will disappear that could worsen the outlook. Namely, the warmer Pacific waters that typically create a buffer against more active storm development won’t be there this upcoming season.
“The El Niño that’s currently in place has now peaked and is predicted to gradually dissipate as we go through spring,” Lea told Fox Weather. “And when we get into peak hurricane season from about August onwards, the signals are that the model forecasts I’ve looked are suggesting, are going for, if anything, a weak La Niña in place by the time we get through August, September, and October, which would act also to amplify the hurricane activity.”
These conditions could also mean more storms making landfall, as La Niña can reduce the crosswinds that sometimes knock storms off course, The Washington Post reports. Along with the currently above-average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, this could lead to greater risk for historically vulnerable areas in the U.S.
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Despite the current evidence, experts still warn that the current forecast is only an estimate and that a hyperactive hurricane season is not a foregone conclusion.
“Of course, there is still some uncertainty in the sea surface temperatures,” Lea told Fox Weather. “I mean, it’s not to say that something might happen or change rapidly in the atmosphere that might act to cool sea surface temperatures. You can’t rule that out completely. But at the moment, it’s more likely than not that the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic will be warmer than average. Maybe not as warm as they have been recently, but still warmer than average.”
But meteorologists are now also speculating that, even beyond 2024, previously held theories might no longer apply in the face of climate change.
“It’s alarming to me that you can’t count on El Niño to reliably reduce hurricane risk. We’ve learned that is subject to external factors that can override it,” Truchelut told the Miami Herald . “The rules may no longer apply, unfortunately.”
“Arctic Blast” and Widespread Snow Predicted for Next Month—Here’s Where
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The kickoff to 2024 has served as a reminder of just how severe winter weather can get. From freezing temperatures to devastating flooding , few regions have been spared since January began. But with several weeks to go before spring kicks in, meteorologists have already predicted there could be another “arctic blast” and more widespread snow next month. Read on to see why conditions could get so extreme in February and what regions the weather could affect the most.
RELATED: Polar Vortex Could Bring “Severe Winter Weather” to the U.S.—Here’s When .
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The frigid temperatures that swept across the nation earlier this month were a jolting reminder that winter had arrived. However, the colder-than-usual conditions were actually the result of a weather pattern known as the “polar vortex.”
The term refers to a counterclockwise flow of air that keeps a block of low pressure and cold air at the planet’s poles in place, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS). Occasionally, it descends into the continental U.S.—and meteorologists say this explains why so many regions woke up to freezing conditions earlier this month.
“It appears as though the minor [vortex] warming during the first week of January and the subsequent destruction of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere were enough to at least help set the stage for the cold air outbreak over North America this past weekend,” Climate.gov wrote.
RELATED: Weather Predictions Keep Changing—What the Unpredictable Shifts Mean for You .
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Even as last week’s cold snaps have reversed course into some unseasonably warm weather , it’s unlikely we’ve seen the last arctic blast of the winter . According to a blog post by Judah Cohen , an atmospheric scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), the polar vortex is a “rapidly transitioning situation” that will “come down to rinse, lather, repeat.”
Cohen explained his reasoning during an interview with Fox Weather on Jan. 23, where he also outlined how he believes the forecast will play out in the coming weeks. However, the next cold wave might start off with the opposite weather you expect.
“For the first half of January, that polar vortex kind of stumbled and fell foul there, moved south. We had the arctic outbreak,” Cohen told the network. “But now it’s, it’s back together, let’s say, and, it’s a very tight spin, rotation of the polar vortex. All the cold air is receding back towards the North Pole, and we’re going to have a milder end of the month of January.”
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However, the rising mercury may end up being a red herring for what’s to come.
“We’re probably going to see a record warm, like we had that happen in December,” Cohen told Fox Weather in his near-term prediction. “But I do think then, often when you have these Canadian warmings, the polar vortex then tends to transition into a very large disruption called a sudden stratospheric warming or a stretching event, like a rubber band (pulling cold air south).”
Cohen told the network that these very conditions are what created this month’s frigid conditions, and he believes there’s a “good chance” it will repeat itself next month.
“I think in the time frame of the second week of February and even possibly mid-February a stretched polar vortex is becoming more likely,” he told Fox Weather. “This should help end the very mild pattern in place across North America. The intensity and duration of cold weather associated with the stretched polar vortex is yet to be determined.”
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Dealing with another blast of freezing temperatures may be par for the course as far as winter is concerned. But Cohen also says some regions could see more snow and extreme weather head their way as another variable affects conditions.
Weather forecasts still consider the effects of El Niño in the winter, which describes a patch of warmer-than-average water off the coast of South America. Typically, it generates wetter weather in the West while bringing more mild, less snowy conditions to the East Coast, according to National Geographic . But as the season progresses, the weakening warmth could bring about a drastic change on top of the polar vortex.
“As far as El Niño, I do think that less than strong is better for snow and cold in the East,” Cohen told The Washington Post in an email.
Altogether, Cohen believes those who are hoping for an early start to spring will be disappointed by what’s likely coming. “I don’t think it’s the end of winter,” he told Fox Weather. “I think it’s not a breakdown of the pattern, but I think a relaxing pattern.”
- Source: NWS: What Is the Polar Vortex?
- Source: NOAA Climate.gov: The polar vortex is acting up
