“Polar Vortex Disruption” Will Send U.S. Temps Plummeting—Here’s When
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Even in February, a stretch of unseasonably warm weather can be enough to lull some into believing that winter might be on its way out earlier than usual. But as we’ve seen this year, conditions can change almost instantly to bring back freezing temperatures and even snowfall. Now, meteorologists say there’s evidence that a “polar vortex disruption” will send temperatures plummeting in the U.S. Read on to see when you can likely expect the mercury to start dropping and just how cold it could get.
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People in most areas already associate winter with much colder conditions. But in some cases, drastically chilly temperatures can be caused by a “polar vortex” shift.
Winter weather is typically stabilized by a stream of air flowing west to east in the upper atmosphere that helps prevent frigid arctic temperatures from flowing down into more southern latitudes, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). However, disruptions can sometimes weaken the flow , allowing the colder airmass to push into the continental U.S.
This winter has already seen a few instances of atmospheric shifts leading to widespread cold snaps , even well into the typically balmy south and southeast regions. But after rebounding to much milder temperatures, forecasts suggest another chill might be on the way.
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It may not be time to pack away those heavy coats just yet. According to Judah Cohen , director of seasonal forecasting for Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research, forecast models currently show that a “polar vortex disruption” could be on the horizon , MLive reports.
The latest near-term outlook shows the progression of cold polar air over the next two weeks in which a concentrated vortex surrounded by a high-pressure system begins to stretch around Feb. 15. Five days later, the model shows the system splitting and changing its trajectory to send colder air down to the northern U.S.
From then on, the mercury looks like it could drop. A temperature forecast map for Feb. 16 through Feb. 20 shows that large swaths of the Midwest, Northeast, and northern areas of the Southeast could see temperatures around five degrees colder than the average—which means some places could be well below freezing.
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Cohen wasn’t alone in his prediction of a mid-February cold snap . During a segment on Feb. 2, Fox Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin estimated that “we have a little more winter weather to get through” before the true spring thaw begins—which could also affect the chances of snow in parts of the country.
To illustrate her point, Merwin brought up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal forecast, which she said might be misleading in calling for slightly warmer than average temperatures overall in February for much of the U.S.
“This is an average for the entire month—[as in] every single day in February, we’ll add up the temperatures and divide it by the amount of days,” she explains. “It doesn’t mean you’re not going to have cold weather, just that means that the majority of it is going to be warm, so we can still get cold air.”
She then pointed to computer models anticipating a drop in temperatures in the middle of this month due to a polar vortex disruption.
“It means that arctic air is going to break away from the poles and move into the northern part of the U.S.,” Merwin said. “This is what’s key for winter weather across areas like the Great Lakes in the Northeast. We have to have that arctic air move into the country for us to get big snowstorms.”
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But while the upcoming cold snap might remind us that spring is still weeks away, there may not be much on the other side of it. Merwin points out that the winding down of winter begins to decrease the likelihood of colder, snowier weather in most areas.
“The sun angle, for instance—we’re going to be going into springtime, and each day gets longer and longer [and] we get more sunlight,” she explained during the Feb. 2 segment. “We’re battling to find the cold air, and it gets harder to pull off bigger snowstorms for many regions across the U.S. as we go into March.”
Other extended forecasts predict that some areas will get early warmth while others will have to wait a little longer. According to Accuweather, parts of the Northern tier could see an earlier spring, while those in the Four Corners region could see a bit of an extended winter . Those in the Southeast might also see a slower transition than usual over March, with warmer weather not taking off until the second half of the month.
- Source: NWS: What Is the Polar Vortex?
- Source: NOAA: U.S. climate outlook for February 2024
“Arctic Blast” and Widespread Snow Predicted for Next Month—Here’s Where
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The kickoff to 2024 has served as a reminder of just how severe winter weather can get. From freezing temperatures to devastating flooding , few regions have been spared since January began. But with several weeks to go before spring kicks in, meteorologists have already predicted there could be another “arctic blast” and more widespread snow next month. Read on to see why conditions could get so extreme in February and what regions the weather could affect the most.
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The frigid temperatures that swept across the nation earlier this month were a jolting reminder that winter had arrived. However, the colder-than-usual conditions were actually the result of a weather pattern known as the “polar vortex.”
The term refers to a counterclockwise flow of air that keeps a block of low pressure and cold air at the planet’s poles in place, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS). Occasionally, it descends into the continental U.S.—and meteorologists say this explains why so many regions woke up to freezing conditions earlier this month.
“It appears as though the minor [vortex] warming during the first week of January and the subsequent destruction of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere were enough to at least help set the stage for the cold air outbreak over North America this past weekend,” Climate.gov wrote.
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Even as last week’s cold snaps have reversed course into some unseasonably warm weather , it’s unlikely we’ve seen the last arctic blast of the winter . According to a blog post by Judah Cohen , an atmospheric scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), the polar vortex is a “rapidly transitioning situation” that will “come down to rinse, lather, repeat.”
Cohen explained his reasoning during an interview with Fox Weather on Jan. 23, where he also outlined how he believes the forecast will play out in the coming weeks. However, the next cold wave might start off with the opposite weather you expect.
“For the first half of January, that polar vortex kind of stumbled and fell foul there, moved south. We had the arctic outbreak,” Cohen told the network. “But now it’s, it’s back together, let’s say, and, it’s a very tight spin, rotation of the polar vortex. All the cold air is receding back towards the North Pole, and we’re going to have a milder end of the month of January.”
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However, the rising mercury may end up being a red herring for what’s to come.
“We’re probably going to see a record warm, like we had that happen in December,” Cohen told Fox Weather in his near-term prediction. “But I do think then, often when you have these Canadian warmings, the polar vortex then tends to transition into a very large disruption called a sudden stratospheric warming or a stretching event, like a rubber band (pulling cold air south).”
Cohen told the network that these very conditions are what created this month’s frigid conditions, and he believes there’s a “good chance” it will repeat itself next month.
“I think in the time frame of the second week of February and even possibly mid-February a stretched polar vortex is becoming more likely,” he told Fox Weather. “This should help end the very mild pattern in place across North America. The intensity and duration of cold weather associated with the stretched polar vortex is yet to be determined.”
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Dealing with another blast of freezing temperatures may be par for the course as far as winter is concerned. But Cohen also says some regions could see more snow and extreme weather head their way as another variable affects conditions.
Weather forecasts still consider the effects of El Niño in the winter, which describes a patch of warmer-than-average water off the coast of South America. Typically, it generates wetter weather in the West while bringing more mild, less snowy conditions to the East Coast, according to National Geographic . But as the season progresses, the weakening warmth could bring about a drastic change on top of the polar vortex.
“As far as El Niño, I do think that less than strong is better for snow and cold in the East,” Cohen told The Washington Post in an email.
Altogether, Cohen believes those who are hoping for an early start to spring will be disappointed by what’s likely coming. “I don’t think it’s the end of winter,” he told Fox Weather. “I think it’s not a breakdown of the pattern, but I think a relaxing pattern.”
- Source: NWS: What Is the Polar Vortex?
- Source: NOAA Climate.gov: The polar vortex is acting up
