This Weekend’s “Largest Storm of the Season” Could Drench These Regions
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Most people prepare for winter weather assuming they’ll get frigid temperatures and plenty of snow. But depending on certain conditions and weather patterns, other areas can wind up getting soaked with heavy rain during the coldest months of the year. Now, meteorologists are warning that the “largest storm of the season” could drench some parts of the U.S. this weekend. Read on to see what the developing forecast has in store and what it could mean for you.
RELATED: “Arctic Blast” and Widespread Snow Predicted for Next Month—Here’s Where .
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This week has brought the next phase in a continued stream of wet weather for California and the Pacific Northwest. An atmospheric river funneled heavy rains across the West Coast on Wednesday, with satellite images showing clouds covering a 2,000-mile swath from offshore Los Angeles all the way to Juneau, Alaska, AccuWeather reports.
This bout of drenching weather was caused by an atmospheric river known as the “Pineapple Express.” The weather pattern funnels heavy moisture from the waters just offshore of Hawaii to the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada where it produces rain, according to The New York Times .
On Jan. 31, the storm soaked the San Francisco Bay area and brought wind with gusts around 50 miles per hour to the region, NBC News reports. The system placed over 20 million people under flood watches during the day.
The heavy rain moved south towards Los Angeles and San Diego early Thursday, potentially bringing as much as two to four inches of precipitation to the area over the course of the day, per an AccuWeather forecast. The latest wave of moisture comes just days after San Diego experienced devastating floods on Jan. 22 during what became the city’s wettest January day on record.
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Unfortunately, the Golden State won’t have very much time to dry out before seeing another soaking. A second storm system is expected to almost immediately follow the current one, potentially bringing even worse bouts of rain and snow starting this weekend .
“The largest storm of the season will begin late Saturday night into Sunday,” meteorologists with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Los Angeles wrote in their long-term forecast for the area on Feb. 1.
The system could also ramp up in intensity as it approaches land. During an online press briefing, Daniel Swain , a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said some models suggested the storm could undergo a significant low-pressure drop and create what’s known as a “bomb cyclone,” the Associated Press reports.
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Because of the potential for the storm to strengthen before its arrival, meteorologists are still combing through data to assess just how much precipitation some areas could receive. But figures show that the combined rainfall from the two systems could be quite considerable.
Rainfall gets even more intense heading farther south. Parts of the South Central coastline could see five to seven inches of precipitation within the next week, with Santa Barbara and parts of Los Angeles trending towards the higher side, per CNN. The NWS forecast points out that “the heaviest portion of the storm is expected to be Sunday night into Monday” for the region.
And it’s not just water: The Sierra Nevada Mountain region is expected to get hammered with even more snow during the second storm than the first, according to AccuWeather. By the middle of next week, some areas of higher elevation could see as much as five to 10 feet of cumulative snowfall.
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But just as the West Coast braces for its second consecutive impact, the first round of rain will push ahead and impact other regions’ weekend plans . The system will bring rain to the Southwest and parts of the Rocky Mountains, bringing six inches to a foot of snow to Denver before reaching Texas and pushing east.
“As a storm works its way east from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast states from Friday into the weekend, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico,” Dan Pydynowski, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said on Jan. 31. “This will produce a myriad of travel threats across the South.”
Areas from the Texas coast through Oklahoma could see severe thunderstorms beginning on Friday, which have the potential for damaging wind, hail, and flash floods. The system will push into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday and Sunday with heavy rains that meteorologists warn could slow travel. Finally, the storm will move through the southeast and on to Florida to wrap up the weekend, with parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina expected to pick up around one to three inches of rain.
“There can be a greater risk of severe thunderstorms with downpours and damaging winds, centered on portions of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday,” Pydynowski said. “This is because a separate, potent piece of atmospheric energy will barrel eastward across the Gulf and into Florida.”
- Source: NWS: Area Forecast Discussion, Los Angeles, CA
“Arctic Blast” and Widespread Snow Predicted for Next Month—Here’s Where
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The kickoff to 2024 has served as a reminder of just how severe winter weather can get. From freezing temperatures to devastating flooding , few regions have been spared since January began. But with several weeks to go before spring kicks in, meteorologists have already predicted there could be another “arctic blast” and more widespread snow next month. Read on to see why conditions could get so extreme in February and what regions the weather could affect the most.
RELATED: Polar Vortex Could Bring “Severe Winter Weather” to the U.S.—Here’s When .
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The frigid temperatures that swept across the nation earlier this month were a jolting reminder that winter had arrived. However, the colder-than-usual conditions were actually the result of a weather pattern known as the “polar vortex.”
The term refers to a counterclockwise flow of air that keeps a block of low pressure and cold air at the planet’s poles in place, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS). Occasionally, it descends into the continental U.S.—and meteorologists say this explains why so many regions woke up to freezing conditions earlier this month.
“It appears as though the minor [vortex] warming during the first week of January and the subsequent destruction of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere were enough to at least help set the stage for the cold air outbreak over North America this past weekend,” Climate.gov wrote.
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Even as last week’s cold snaps have reversed course into some unseasonably warm weather , it’s unlikely we’ve seen the last arctic blast of the winter . According to a blog post by Judah Cohen , an atmospheric scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), the polar vortex is a “rapidly transitioning situation” that will “come down to rinse, lather, repeat.”
Cohen explained his reasoning during an interview with Fox Weather on Jan. 23, where he also outlined how he believes the forecast will play out in the coming weeks. However, the next cold wave might start off with the opposite weather you expect.
“For the first half of January, that polar vortex kind of stumbled and fell foul there, moved south. We had the arctic outbreak,” Cohen told the network. “But now it’s, it’s back together, let’s say, and, it’s a very tight spin, rotation of the polar vortex. All the cold air is receding back towards the North Pole, and we’re going to have a milder end of the month of January.”
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However, the rising mercury may end up being a red herring for what’s to come.
“We’re probably going to see a record warm, like we had that happen in December,” Cohen told Fox Weather in his near-term prediction. “But I do think then, often when you have these Canadian warmings, the polar vortex then tends to transition into a very large disruption called a sudden stratospheric warming or a stretching event, like a rubber band (pulling cold air south).”
Cohen told the network that these very conditions are what created this month’s frigid conditions, and he believes there’s a “good chance” it will repeat itself next month.
“I think in the time frame of the second week of February and even possibly mid-February a stretched polar vortex is becoming more likely,” he told Fox Weather. “This should help end the very mild pattern in place across North America. The intensity and duration of cold weather associated with the stretched polar vortex is yet to be determined.”
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Dealing with another blast of freezing temperatures may be par for the course as far as winter is concerned. But Cohen also says some regions could see more snow and extreme weather head their way as another variable affects conditions.
Weather forecasts still consider the effects of El Niño in the winter, which describes a patch of warmer-than-average water off the coast of South America. Typically, it generates wetter weather in the West while bringing more mild, less snowy conditions to the East Coast, according to National Geographic . But as the season progresses, the weakening warmth could bring about a drastic change on top of the polar vortex.
“As far as El Niño, I do think that less than strong is better for snow and cold in the East,” Cohen told The Washington Post in an email.
Altogether, Cohen believes those who are hoping for an early start to spring will be disappointed by what’s likely coming. “I don’t think it’s the end of winter,” he told Fox Weather. “I think it’s not a breakdown of the pattern, but I think a relaxing pattern.”
- Source: NWS: What Is the Polar Vortex?
- Source: NOAA Climate.gov: The polar vortex is acting up
